Stefan Messingschlager - Historian & Political Scientist



Stefan Messingschlager

Historian & Political Scientist
with a focus on Modern China & Sino-German Relations

News and Public Outreach

New Publication
06/04/2026
 

Warum Deutschland China-Kompetenz dauerhaft finanzieren muss

in: Research.Table Professional Briefing no. 381, 04 June 2026.

Deutschland hat begonnen, China-Kompetenz als strategische Querschnittsaufgabe ernst zu nehmen. Doch befristete Projektförderung gefährdet den Aufbau dieses Wissens. Dauerhafte Strukturen sind nötig.

New Publication
06/01/2026
 

Atemräume unter Vorbehalt: Diskursinfrastruktur und Loyalitätsregime: Intellektuelle in der Xi-Ära

in: MERKUR: Deutsche Zeitschrift für europäisches Denken, 80/ 925 (June 2026), pp. 5-19.

New Publication
05/27/2026
 

Why Germany must fund China expertise for the long term

in: China.Table no. 1336, 27 May 2026.

Germany has begun to take China expertise seriously as a strategic cross-cutting task. But short-term project funding is putting the development of that knowledge at risk. What is needed are permanent structures.

New Publication
05/27/2026
 

Warum Deutschland China-Kompetenz dauerhaft finanzieren muss

in: China.Table no. 1336, 27 May 2026.

Deutschland hat begonnen, China-Kompetenz als strategische Querschnittsaufgabe ernst zu nehmen. Doch befristete Projektförderung gefährdet den Aufbau dieses Wissens. Dauerhafte Strukturen sind nötig.

New Publication
05/08/2026
 

Europe’s Left and China: Beyond Campism and Atlanticism

in: The Diplomat, 8 May 2026. [together with Arnau Brasó Ibáñez]

The European left can make Europe’s China policy more socially intelligent. But leftists must not forget that Chinese society is more than the Chinese state.

New Publication
05/07/2026
 

Selective Legalism and China’s Ordercraft: How Beijing Mobilizes Law while Resisting Binding Verdicts

in: Yale Journal of International Affairs 21/2 (Spring 2026), ahead-of-print available online.

In contemporary diplomacy, “international law” and the “rules-based international order” travel as portable slogans. Yet their political work differs. The phrase “rules-based” can obscure the question that matters most in practice: who gets to say what the rules mean, and what follows when they are breached? China’s recent diplomacy highlights a growing contest not over whether legality exists, but over where legality is produced—in courts, councils, arbitral panels, or bargaining tables. That institutional choice has distributional effects: verdicts can constrain and sometimes equalize, while process-centered bargaining often amplifies power asymmetries.

This article advances a simple claim: China increasingly practices selective legalism. I use the term as shorthand for a recurring pattern: embracing treaty-based rules and legal vocabulary while steering disputes away from venues that can issue binding decisions. The effect is a reallocation of legal authority—from adjudication toward managed negotiation and mediation-centered venue-making. I use ordercraft to denote deliberate efforts to shape the procedural defaults and institutional venues through which legal authority is produced and made consequential. In legal terms, it preserves obligation while restricting delegation.

Selective legalism is neither simple “hypocrisy” nor a wholesale rejection of international law. It is closer to what Robert Williams, a legal scholar at Yale Law School and nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, calls a flexible and functional approach: law as a tool of legitimation and delegitimation, deployed to shape the context of choice. What is new is how systematically Beijing couples legal vocabulary to procedural engineering.

New Publication
05/05/2026
 

"China-Kompetenz ist kein Nischenthema"

in: Süddeutsche Zeitung, 5 May 2026, p. 6. [Interview with Lea Sahay, Peking]

Deutschland muss China besser verstehen, doch die Bundesregierung hat die Förderung etlicher wichtiger Projekte auslaufen lassen. Was falsch läuft, erklärt Experte Stefan Messingschlager.

New Publication
04/29/2026
 

Book Review: La credibilidad de Europa en el Indopacífico entre la estrategia y la percepción regional

in: Revista CIDOB d’Afers Internacionals, no. 142, p. 210-213. [together with María Herrero Martínez]

Book review:

Abbondanza, Gabriele y Grgić, Gorana. Europe’s Indo-Pacific pivot: navigating new horizons. Palgrave Macmillan, 2025, 149 págs.

Joshi, Yogesh, Nishida, Ippeita y Chaturvedi, Devyani (eds.). The European Union as a security actor in the Indo-Pacific: perceptions and responses from the region. Palgrave Macmillan, 2024, 221 págs.

New Publication
04/28/2026
 

Court Day, not Liberation Day: option-value statecraft and the volatility premium of U.S. transactionalism in Trump’s second term

in: Australian Journal of International Affairs, ahead-of-print available online: DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2026.2665618.

On 20 February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. On the same day, the White House terminated IEEPA duties, maintained the suspension of de minimis treatment, and invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% import surcharge for 150 days. It is tempting to read the ruling as the end of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ regime. This essay argues the opposite. Court Day was less a reset than a shock that exposed Trump’s second-term governing logic. Tariffs, market access, and alliance reassurance operate as policy options: instruments whose value lies not only in the pressure imposed, but in the right to reprice, suspend, and reissue that pressure under changing legal and diplomatic forms. I call this option-value statecraft. Operationally, it is visible in rapid statutory substitution, built-in reversibility, and the monetisation of predictability. The result is a volatility premium that allies and rivals pay through litigation risk, deferred investment, supply-chain duplication, and insurance politics among middle powers. For Australia, the task is transaction-proofing: hardening commitments where possible, pricing U.S. policy volatility into planning, and building alternatives without rupture.

New Publication
04/28/2026
 

Review of Ilker Gündoğan: The Politics of Football in China: Institutional Change and Political Steering Under Xi Jinping (2025)

in: ASIEN: The German Journal on Contemporary Asia 172/173 (2024), pp. 181-183.

"With this impressive analytical achievement, The Politics of Football in China constitutes a substantial contribution to contemporary scholarship on China, authoritarian governance, and globalised sports politics. The book is thus highly recommended to scholars specialising in China and governance studies, as well as practitioners and policymakers interested in understanding the complex political dynamics shaping global sporting arenas."

New Publication
04/24/2026
 

Review of Marc Matten/ Egas Moniz Bandeira: Globalgeschichten aus China: Aktuelle Debatten in der Volksrepublik (2023)

in: Comparativ: Zeitschrift für Globalgeschichte und vergleichende Gesellschaftsforschung, 1/2 (2026), pp. 192-196.

"Globalgeschichten aus China is essential reading for anyone interested in global history, historiographical debates, or the role of non-Western perspectives in reshaping our understanding of the past. By fostering dialogue, methodological innovation, and a commitment to multiperspectival analysis, the volume sets the stage for future scholarship that fully embraces the complexities of global interconnectivity. It challenges existing paradigms while offering a vision for a more inclusive and equitable global historiography, positioning Chinese perspectives as a vital component of the discipline’s evolution."

New Publication
04/16/2026
 

The Iran War and the Indo-Pacific Cost of Selective Legality

in: E-International Relations, 16 April 2026.

The test posed by the Iran war is not Tehran’s character, it is in whether governments still believe that law binds friends as well as enemies.

New Publication
03/27/2026
 

Solidarity as Strategy: China’s ‘True Multilateralism’ and the Solitude of Rules

in: Oxford Political Review, 27 March 2026.

Chinese diplomacy goes hand in hand with the language of solidarity. Through the idioms of ‘true multilateralism’, the ‘democratisation of international relations’, and the promise of a ‘community with a shared future for mankind’, Beijing offers many governments a dignified way to resist world hierarchy. But this goes only so far. A meticulously reasoned 2016 South China Sea arbitral award was dismissed as ‘null and void’; the Sino–British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong, registered with the UN and promising a ‘high degree of autonomy’, is increasingly portrayed, in Beijing’s telling, as a mere ‘historical document’ already spent. And so, the paradox is clear: China’s solidarity lexicon travels well, while the rules themselves too often stand alone – affirmed in principle, yet set aside when they constrain.

New Publication
03/12/2026
 

China und der Iran: Macht? Gern. Verantwortung? Lieber nicht.

in: Die ZEIT, 12 March 2026.

Außenpolitik bedeutet für China: Einfluss ohne Bündnisbindung und Nähe ohne Schutzgarantie. Das zeigt der Krieg gegen den Iran gerade deutlich.

New Publication
02/24/2026
 

Scale Is Not a System: Learning from China without Mimicry

in: Made in China Journal, Volume 10, Issue 2, 2025, pp. 64-73. 

Kaiser Kuo’s (2025) ‘The Great Reckoning: What the West Should Learn from China’ is a bracing provocation. He argues that China is no longer merely ‘catching up’ but increasingly sets the tempo of economic, technological, and institutional development. Legitimacy in the twenty-first century, he contends, rests increasingly—though not exclusively—on performance, with climate policy as the decisive test: China is simultaneously the largest carbon dioxide emitter and the indispensable builder of clean energy, installing more solar and wind capacity each year than the rest of the world. The United States is already edging towards instruments it once disdained, such as industrial policy and state–private sector coordination, even as public discourse clings to reassuring rationalisations. Drawing on Joseph Levenson’s (1965) meum/verum distinction, Kuo diagnoses a widening gap between what Western societies hold dear and what the world renders true. His call is not a policy manual but a perceptual shift: to acknowledge achievement clearly rather than coping by predicting collapse.

The question, then, is not whether a reckoning is due—it surely is—but how to reckon well. A persuasive response must integrate what Kuo sees and what his sweeping lens blurs: the historical depth of multiple modernities, the cyclical fragility of performance-based legitimacy, the difference between a toolbox and an order, the gap between capacity and system integration, and the terms by which learning travels between regimes.

In this piece, I advance five claims. First, modernity has long been plural, and China radicalises that plurality by pushing it to continental scale. Second, performance-based legitimacy is powerful yet cyclical and depends on truth-tracking inputs. Third, scale is not system: enduring gains hinge on integration, not capacity totals. Fourth, convergence of instruments such as subsidies and procurement does not equal convergence of orders defined by accountability and reversibility. Fifth, learning travels between regimes under constraints that determine what can be adopted and how fast.

The aim of this reply is to sharpen, not blunt, Kuo’s challenge: to recognise what is genuinely new about China’s ascent while resisting the temptation to infer a wholesale hierarchy of systems from a hierarchy of outcomes in particular domains.

New Publication
02/23/2026
 

Durchs Dickicht der Geopolitik,

in: Süddeutsche Zeitung, 23 February 2026, p. 13. 

Volker Perthes betrachtet die viel beklagte Multipolarisierung als Prozess, der regional unterschiedliche Auswirkungen hat und auch Chancen eröffnet.

New Publication
02/13/2026
 

Trump’s Taiwan Gamble: How U.S. Transactionalism Reshapes Beijing’s Risk Calculus,

in: Columbia Journal of International Affairs, 13 February 2026. 

Since January 2025, Washington has increasingly treated economic and security commitments to Taiwan as renegotiable bargains. This article argues that such “transactional deterrence” can strengthen near-term denial—via accelerated arms transfers and industrial mobilization—while injecting volatility into punishment credibility and crisis management. Beijing’s late-2025 coercive rehearsal and sanctions preparation suggest that probing pressure, under shorter decision cycles, is now the central escalation risk.

New Publication
01/16/2026
 

Europa im Spiegel Pekings,

in: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 16 January 2026. 
[guest op-ed together with Arthur Tarnowski]

Wie China Europas „strategische Autonomie“ für sich reklamiert. Und was daraus folgt.

New Publication
01/09/2026
 

Ein Krieg in den Köpfen,

in: DIE ZEIT, 9 January 2026.

Die Entführung Maduros zeigt, wie sensibel Deutungshoheiten sind. In Taiwan spüren sie: Gewalt lässt sich politisch als Vollzug erzählen. China weiß das zu nutzen.

New Publication
01/08/2026
 

Review of: David Shambaugh: Breaking the Engagement: How China Won & Lost America

in: International Affairs 102/1 (2026), pp. 313-315.

"[...] the book represents a significant scholarly contribution, offering an analytically rigorous account of the rise, internal contradictions and eventual collapse of America's long-standing engagement policy toward China."

Academic Profiles

Academia.edu

Online-Profiles

ResearchGate

Online-Profiles

Clio Online

Chair of Modern History at HSU
 

Chair of Contemporary Chinese Studies at JMU Würzburg
 

LinkedIn

Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi), Berlin

Non-Resident Fellow

DIE ZEIT

(Author Profile)

taz

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OpenHSU

(Institutional Repository of Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg)
 

Table.Media

(Author Profile)

SOAS China Institute

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Research Profile at the University of Konstanz
 

Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik

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MERKUR: Deutsche Zeitschrift für europäisches Denken

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Deutsche Gesellschaft für Asienkunde (DGA)

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